Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions*
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations
During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, sugges...
متن کاملProxy inconsistency and other problems in millennial paleoclimate reconstructions.
Mann et al. (1) present two paleoclimate reconstruction methods [‘‘error-in-variables’’ (EIV) and ‘‘composite plus scale’’ (CPS)], claiming statistically significant skill for both. Their figure 3 reveals that from approximately 750 to 1100, the CPS 95% confidence interval excludes the EIV 95% confidence interval and vice versa. This is evidence not of skill, but of inconsistency. Contrary to a...
متن کاملInternal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America
Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combina...
متن کاملNorth American Drought: Reconstructions, Causes, and Consequences
Severe drought is the greatest recurring natural disaster to strike North America. A remarkable network of centuries-long annual tree-ring chronologies has now allowed for the reconstruction of past drought over North America covering the past 1,000 or more years in most regions. These reconstructions reveal the occurrence of past “megadroughts” of unprecedented severity and duration, ones t...
متن کاملA 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America.
A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Climate
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0894-8755,1520-0442
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00603.1